Adult survival in a small seabird, Hydrobates leucorhous, covaries with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation over the past six decades
Adult survival in a small seabird, Hydrobates leucorhous, covaries with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation over the past six decades
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- dc.contributor.author
- Pollet, Ingrid L.
- Gutowsky, Sarah E.
- Ronconi, Robert A.
- Robertson, Gregory J.
- Huntington, Charles E.
- Mauck, Robert A.
- Jones, Patricia L.
- dc.date.accepted
- 2025-05-01
- dc.date.accessioned
- 2026-02-23T16:38:07Z
- dc.date.available
- 2026-02-23T16:38:07Z
- dc.date.issued
- 2025-06-25
- dc.date.submitted
- 2025-03-06
- dc.description.abstract - en
- Seabirds’ annual survival is influenced by numerous factors, but oceanic conditions are among the most significant. Indices used to monitor these conditions typically cycle over decades. Using the longest capture-mark-recapture (CMR) time-series available for the species (1955-2023), we estimated apparent adult survival of Leach’s storm-petrels (Hydrobates leucorhous) from Kent Island, New Brunswick. We assessed whether survival covaried with large-scale oceanographic indices reflecting conditions at various periods in the life cycle. We used Cormack-Jolly-Seber CMR models to estimate annual apparent survival rate. Mean annual survival was φ = 0.84 ± 0.01 over the 68-year study period, and was variable across years (range: 0.62 ± 0.06 to 0.97 ± 0.05) with a concentration of high values between 1979-1989. Adult survival rate was inversely proportional to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index with a small but significant effect (β: -0.70 [-0.92 - - 0.47], 13% of deviance explained), meaning low survival rates were associated with high AMO, indicating positive sea surface temperature anomalies over the North Atlantic. Such a relationship could only have been detected with extended long-term study since the AMO has a period of 60-80 years. Despite the challenges of maintaining long-term studies, they are more than ever essential in population ecology.
- dc.identifier.issn
- 0962-8452
- 1471-2954
- dc.identifier.uri
- https://science-ouverte.canada.ca/handle/123456789/4250
- dc.language.iso
- en
- dc.publisher - en
- Royal Society Publishing
- dc.publisher - fr
- Royal Society Publishing
- dc.relation.isreplacedby
- https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2024.2710
- dc.rights - en
- Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
- dc.rights - fr
- Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
- dc.rights.openaccesslevel - en
- Green
- dc.rights.openaccesslevel - fr
- Vert
- dc.rights.uri - en
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
- dc.rights.uri - fr
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.fr
- dc.subject - en
- Aquatic birds
- Ecology
- Oceanography
- dc.subject - fr
- Oiseau aquatique
- Écologie
- Océanographie
- dc.subject.en - en
- Aquatic birds
- Ecology
- Oceanography
- dc.subject.fr - fr
- Oiseau aquatique
- Écologie
- Océanographie
- dc.title - en
- Adult survival in a small seabird, Hydrobates leucorhous, covaries with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation over the past six decades
- dc.type - en
- Accepted manuscript
- dc.type - fr
- Manuscrit accepté
- local.article.journalissue
- 2049
- local.article.journaltitle - en
- Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
- local.article.journalvolume
- 292
- local.pagination
- 36 pages
- local.peerreview - en
- Yes
- local.peerreview - fr
- Oui
- local.requestdoi - en
- No
- local.requestdoi - fr
- No
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